2014 NBA Playoffs - Predictions

The 2013-14 NBA Regular Season has concluded. The playoff field is officially set. Thankfully, there will be no more talk of “tanking” or speculation about how long Kevin Durant’s scoring streak will last. The climax of the whole season is almost upon us and here are my 2014 NBA Playoff Predictions:

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio vs. #8 Dallas

Game 1: San Antonio

Game 2: San Antonio

Game 3: Dallas

Game 4: San Antonio

Game 5: San Antonio

Series Winner: San Antonio (4-1)

#2 Oklahoma City vs. #7 Memphis

Game 1: Oklahoma City

Game 2: Memphis

Game 3: Oklahoma City

Game 4: Oklahoma City

Game 5: Memphis

Game 6: Oklahoma City

Series Winner: Oklahoma City (4-2)

#3 L.A. Clippers vs. #6 Golden State

Game 1: Golden State

Game 2: L.A. Clippers

Game 3: L.A. Clippers

Game 4: L.A. Clippers

Game 5: Golden State

Game 6: L.A. Clippers

Series Winner: L.A. Clippers (4-2)

#4 Houston vs. #5 Portland

Game 1: Portland

Game 2: Houston

Game 3: Portland

Game 4: Houston

Game 5: Houston

Game 6: Portland

Game 7: Houston

Series Winner: Houston (4-3)

Eastern Conference

#1 Indiana vs. #8 Atlanta

Game 1: Indiana

Game 2: Indiana

Game 3: Indiana

Game 4: Atlanta

Game 5: Indiana

Series Winner: Indiana (4-1)

#2 Miami vs. #7 Charlotte

Game 1: Miami

Game 2: Miami

Game 3: Charlotte

Game 4: Miami

Game 5: Miami

Series Winner: Miami (4-1)

#3 Toronto vs. #6 Brooklyn

Game 1: Brooklyn

Game 2: Toronto

Game 3: Brooklyn

Game 4: Brooklyn

Game 5: Toronto

Game 6: Brooklyn

Series Winner: Brooklyn (4-2)

#4 Chicago vs. #5 Washington

Game 1: Chicago

Game 2: Chicago

Game 3: Washington

Game 4: Washington

Game 5: Chicago

Game 6: Chicago

Series Winner: Chicago (4-2)

NBA Draft Feeder Schools & Position Trends

With the conclusion of the 2013-14 college basketball season and the mounting excitement surrounding the 2014 NBA Draft, I decided to compile and analyze some data from the past 15 NBA Drafts (1999-2013), in an effort to find out which college basketball programs have churned out the most first round NBA Draft selections during that time period, as well as to discover trends connected to when players are selected, based upon their on-court positions (e.g. center, power forward, etc.).

NBA Draft Feeder Schools

Below is a data table that shows the college basketball programs that have placed the highest number of first round selections in the NBA Draft from 1999 to 2013. The table also provides a segmented snapshot of when players were selected in the first round (e.g. picks 1-3, 4-6, etc.). According to the data, Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina (“UNC”) sit atop the leaderboard, in terms of the overall number of players selected. Interestingly, the number of players from Duke or Kentucky that have been drafted with 1 of the top 6 picks in the past 15 NBA Drafts is much larger than the number of players from North Carolina who have been selected with a top 6 pick: Duke – 6, Kentucky – 6, North Carolina – 2.  

Position Trends in the NBA Draft

From the beginning days of the NBA, the Center position has been one of the most important positions for General Managers to fill on an NBA roster, however, very few teams have elite Centers on their rosters nowadays. Many NBA teams have shifted the focus of their offensive strategies, electing to assemble rosters with more flex-forwards – 6’8” to 7’0” players who can guard taller opposing players, but who do not possess elite low-post skills – and fewer Centers. Is this apparent predicament a supply-based problem, indicating that it’s hard to find talented centers nowadays? Or is it a demand-based problem, indicating that NBA teams have philosophically altered their strategies and no longer place a focus on acquiring/developing Centers?

Data from the past 15 NBA Drafts suggests that the predicament is more supply-based than demand-based. Of the 450 players selected in the first round in that 15-year time frame, only 74 (16.4%) were Centers – the lowest percentage among all positions. This fact does not definitively lead to the conclusion that the lack of Centers in the NBA is a supply-based problem, but, consider that of those 74 Centers selected in the first round since 1999, 38 of them (51.3%) were selected with a top 12 pick, and 10 of them (13.5%) were selected with a top 3 pick. Both of these percentages are the highest among all positions when evaluated with the same criteria. Therefore, Centers are still highly sought after, and, in fact, they are coveted more than any other position when they are projected to be impact performers for NBA teams. But the overall supply of Centers who enter the draft and project to be solid contributors for NBA teams is less than the overall number of prospects at other positions who also project to be solid contributors (see table below).

2012 NBA Draft

The 2012 NBA Draft offered a solid opportunity for franchises with lottery selections (i.e. picks #1-14) to select a quality player who could make an impact on their roster. The top-heavy draft class was headlined by a talented group of freshman that included Anthony Davis (Kentucky) - the presumable #1 overall choice in the Draft - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was Davis' teammate at Kentucky, and Bradley Beal (Florida), who intrigued General Managers with his shooting ability and potential to be a Ray Allen-like player on the wing. The draft class also included a cast of seasoned college players and a litter of promising high school recruits who struggled to establish themselves in the college game. Without a doubt, this draft class had potential to be one of the best draft classes of the past decade, especially considering that 2-3 players in the draft had the ability to become cornerstones for the franchises that would select them.

Top 5 Prospects

1) Anthony Davis, Kentucky. Blessed with an incredible wingspan (over 7.5 feet) and a deep desire to always improve his skillset, Davis won the John R. Wooden Award and a National Championship as a freshman at Kentucky. Davis was a highly touted recruit coming out of high school, as were several of his freshman teammates at Kentucky, but Davis demonstrated leadership that exceeded all expectations and he showed that he was the best player in the country throughout the season. Davis was a force on the defensive end of the court, blocking over 4 shots per game and altering many more. He was also a viable offensive threat, especially as his low-post game developed over the course of the 2011-12 season. As an NBA prospect, Davis has the potential to be a Kevin Garnett-like player, assuming he can continue to develop his outside shooting game and refine his back-to-the-basket skills. At the very least, Davis will be a defensive menace on the court and a quality rebounder. No player in this draft class appears to have as much talent, potential, or ability to influence a game on both sides of the court as does Davis. His projected per game averages during the peak of his career: 22 points, 12 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals.

2) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky. Front offices of NBA franchises crave players who have a motor and a knack for making plays on the defensive end. Kidd-Gilchrist fits that description better than any player in this draft class not named Anthony Davis. Coming out of St. Patrick's High School, NJ, Kidd-Gilchrist was viewed as a Top 5 player in the 2011 recruiting class, according to most recruiting publications. Consequently, Kidd-Gilchrist was expected to make an impact as a freshman at Kentucky. He did not disappoint. Kidd-Gilchrist helped Kentucky win a National Championship and was named a 3rd Team All-American. Throughout the season he showed his ability to be a "shutdown defender," cover passing lanes like a guard while possessing the size of prototypical NBA small forward, and make an impact on "fast breaks." He also guarded the opposing team's best offensive player, a responsibility that has become second nature to him. As an NBA Draft prospect, Kidd-Gilchrist has elite athleticism, great size, and excellent lateral quickness. His offensive repertoire is still a work-in-progress and he will need to develop an outside shooting game if he wants to be a "franchise cornerstone" player. Kidd-Gilchrist's projected per game averages during the peak of his career: 14 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.

3) Bradley Beal, Florida. If you can shoot, you will play in the NBA. Bradley Beal can shoot and he can score lots of points. As a freshman at Florida, Beal helped lead the Gators to an Elite 8 appearance in the NCAA Tournament and was named to the All-SEC 1st Team. Beal has good size for an NBA 2-guard (6-5, 207 lbs.), an NBA-ready shooting stroke, and a superior ability to shoot the basketball coming off of screens. His skillset includes more than just offensive talents; he also makes an impact on the defensive end. In his one season at Florida, Beal averaged 6.7 rebounds per game, 1.4 steals per game and nearly 1.0 block per game. If Beal achieves his potential, he can be a Ray Allen-like player and make a huge impact on an NBA roster. Beal's projected per game averages during the peak of his career: 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals.

4) Harrison Barnes, North Carolina. The first freshman to be named to the AP Preseason All-American team, Barnes was expected to make a big splash during his time at North Carolina. Although he did not dominate games on the offensive end, Barnes' presence on the court was felt throughout his two seasons in Chapel Hill, NC. He helped lead the Tarheels to a pair of Elite 8 appearances in the NCAA Tournament, he was named to the All-ACC 1st Team as a sophomore, and he was awarded the ACC Freshman of the Year as a freshman. Barnes can shoot the ball from the inside and outside, he rebounds, and he plays hard from the opening tip until the end of the game. His ability to shoot off-the-dribble is still improving, and his confidence late in games is still developing. Nonetheless, Barnes figures to be a quality NBA player capable of earning a handful of All-Star Game appearances. His projected per game averages during the peak of his career: 16 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.5 steals.

5) Thomas Robinson, Kansas. No player in this draft class possesses the emotional maturity that Thomas Robinson was forced to cultivate during his time at Kansas. Within three weeks, Robinson lost his grandmother, grandfather, and mother. The emotional trauma he faced from those losses must have been wrenching. Robinson played through those trials, however, and went on to lead Kansas to an appearance in the National Championship Game against Kentucky. Kansas lost to the Wildcats, 67-59, but Robinson showed that he was a big-time player throughout the NCAA Tournament and appeared poised for an opportunity to be selected in the lottery of the NBA Draft. As an NBA Draft prospect, Robinson possesses great rebounding ability, an NBA-ready body, brute strength, and an excellent motor on the court. To become an All-Star level player, Robinson will need to improve his spot-up shooting ability and one-on-one scoring skills. Robinson's projected per game averages during the peak of his career: 15 points, 9 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block.

Draft Board

Prior to the NBA Draft each year, The Court of Gold releases its "NBA Draft Board," which shows the rankings of the top 70 players in the Draft. Prospects are rated on a 40-100 point rating system; a player with a score of "100" indicates that the player is a "franchise changer," while a player with a score of 40 indicates that the player is likely to have a short stint in the NBA.

Below are The Court of Gold's rankings for the 2012 NBA Draft (originally published June 27, 2012):

No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
1	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	PF	6-10	225	98	14.2	10.4	1.3	1.0	62.3	70.9	15.0	1.4/4.7*	Frosh
2	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Kentucky	SF	6-7	232	94	11.9	7.4	1.9	2.2	49.1	74.5	25.5	1.0/0.9*	Frosh
3	Bradley Beal	Florida	SG	6-5	207	94	14.8	6.7	2.2	2.1	44.5	76.9	33.9	1.4/0.8*	Frosh
4	Harrison Barnes	North Carolina	SF	6-8	215	92	17.1	5.2	1.1	1.9	44.0	72.3	35.8	1.1	Soph
5	Thomas Robinson	Kansas	PF	6-10	237	91	17.7	11.9	1.8	2.7	50.5	68.2	50.0	1.1/0.9*	Junior
6	Andre Drummond	Connecticut	C	6-11	275	91	10.0	7.6	0.4	1.5	53.8	29.5	0.0	0.8/2.7*	Frosh
7	Damian Lillard	Weber State	PG	6-3	195	91	24.5	5.0	4.0	2.3	46.7	88.7	40.9	1.5	Senior
8	Terrence Ross	Washington	SG	6-6	190	88	16.4	6.4	1.4	2.0	45.7	76.6	37.1	1.3/0.9*	Soph
9	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	SG	6-4	215	88	12.6	2.3	2.5	1.3	47.6	72.9	36.3	1.8	Soph
10	Perry Jones III	Baylor	PF	6-11	235	87	13.5	7.6	1.3	1.7	50.0	69.6	30.3	0.8	Soph
No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
11	John Henson	North Carolina	PF	6-11	220	87	13.7	9.9	1.3	1.3	50.0	51.1	0.0	2.9*	Junior
12	Terrence Jones	Kentucky	SF	6-8	244	87	12.3	7.2	1.3	1.6	50.0	62.7	32.7	1.3/1.8*	Soph
13	Meyers Leonard	Illinois	C	7-0	240	87	13.6	8.2	1.3	2.1	58.4	73.2	9.1	1.9*	Soph
14	Kendall Marshall	North Carolina	PG	6-4	195	86	8.1	2.6	9.8	2.8	46.7	69.6	35.4	1.2	Soph
15	Austin Rivers	Duke	PG	6-4	199	85	15.5	3.4	2.1	2.3	43.3	65.8	36.5	1.0	Frosh
16	Mo Harkless	St. John's	SF	6-9	208	85	15.5	8.6	1.5	2.5	45.2	67.6	21.5	1.6/1.4*	Frosh
17	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	SG	6-5	180	85	17.7	4.9	1.7	2.0	47.8	81.0	33.6	1.2/0.6*	Soph
18	Tyler Zeller	North Carolina	C	7-0	250	84	16.3	9.6	0.9	1.9	55.3	80.8	0.0	0.9/1.5*	Senior
19	Royce White	Iowa State	PF	6-8	270	82	13.4	9.3	5.0	1.2	53.4	49.8	33.3	1.2/0.9*	Soph
20	Tony Wroten, Jr.	Washington	PG	6-5	205	82	16.0	5.0	3.7	3.8	44.3	58.3	16.1	1.9	Frosh
No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
21	Jae Crowder	Marquette	SF	6-6	225	82	17.5	8.4	2.1	1.3	49.8	73.5	34.5	2.5/1.0*	Senior
22	Festus Ezeli	Vanderbilt	C	6-11	255	81	10.1	5.9	0.3	2.2	53.9	60.4	0.0	2.0*	Senior
23	Draymond Green	Michigan State	SF	6-7	230	81	16.2	10.6	3.8	3.0	44.9	72.3	38.8	1.5/0.9*	Senior
24	Fab Melo	Syracuse	C	7-0	270	81	7.8	5.8	0.7	1.4	56.6	63.3	0.0	2.9*	Soph
25	Jeff Taylor	Vanderbilt	SF	6-7	225	81	16.1	5.6	1.7	2.2	49.3	60.5	42.3	1.3	Senior
26	Arnett Moultrie	Mississippi State	C	6-11	249	80	16.4	10.5	1.2	2.4	54.9	78.0	44.4	0.8/0.8*	Junior
27	Marquis Teague	Kentucky	PG	6-2	189	80	10.0	2.5	4.8	2.7	41.2	71.4	32.5	0.9	Frosh
28	Will Barton	Memphis	SG	6-6	175	80	18.0	8.0	2.9	2.1	50.9	74.9	34.6	1.4	Junior
29	Quincy Acy	Baylor	SF	6-7	224	80	12.0	7.4	1.0	1.9	57.7	78.2	60.0	0.9/1.8*	Senior
30	Quincy Miller	Baylor	SF	6-10	210	80	10.6	4.9	1.4	1.8	44.7	81.6	34.8	0.7	Frosh
No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
31	Evan Fournier	France	SG	6-7	206	79	14.0	3.2	2.2	2.2	42.5	75.4	27.7	1.5	Int'l
32	John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	SG	6-4	220	78	19.9	2.9	1.2	1.6	47.4	83.7	43.9	0.8	Junior
33	Doron Lamb	Kentucky	SG	6-4	210	78	13.7	2.7	1.5	1.1	47.4	82.6	46.6	0.5	Soph
34	Orlando Johnson	UC-Santa Barbara	SF	6-5	205	78	19.7	5.8	2.9	2.5	45.1	69.8	42.7	1.1/0.7*	Senior
35	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	PF	6-8	250	77	19.9	10.9	1.2	1.3	50.9	78.0	26.6	0.7/1.0*	Senior
36	Drew Gordon	New Mexico	PF	6-9	245	76	13.7	11.1	1.2	2.3	54.2	75.2	100.0	1.1/1.0*	Senior
37	Andrew Nicholson	St. Bonaventure	PF	6-9	240	76	18.5	8.4	1.0	2.5	57.1	77.6	43.4	0.7/2.0*	Senior
38	Bernard James	Florida State	C	6-10	240	75	10.8	8.0	0.5	2.1	60.6	55.2	0.0	0.7/2.3*	Senior
39	Jared Cunningham	Oregon State	SG	6-4	194	75	17.9	3.8	2.8	2.8	45.0	73.7	33.8	2.5	Junior
40	David Jelinek	Czech Republic	SG	6-5	190	72	7.6	1.2	0.8	1.4	36.5	77.1	31.9	0.3	Int'l
No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
41	J'Covan Brown	Texas	PG	6-1	185	72	20.1	3.0	3.8	2.7	41.7	86.3	36.9	1.2	Junior
42	Tu Holloway	Xavier	PG	6-0	180	72	17.5	3.6	4.9	3.0	429.0	86.2	34.6	1.5	Senior
43	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	SF	6-8	212	71	12.8	5.5	1.5	1.7	46.4	67.9	43.0	0.7	Junior
44	Alex Young	IUPUI	SG	6-6	212	71	20.4	5.9	2.2	2.4	42.4	81.7	33.9	1.6/1.0*	Senior
45	Scott Machado	Iona	PG	6-1	180	70	13.6	4.9	9.9	3.3	49.5	81.0	40.4	1.6	Senior
46	William Buford	Ohio State	SG	6-6	220	69	14.5	5.0	2.7	2.2	41.9	82.5	35.8	0.8	Senior
47	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	SG	6-2	215	69	18.3	3.5	2.7	2.4	44.7	76.4	38.5	0.9	Senior
48	Yancey Gates	Cincinnati	PF	6-9	287	68	12.2	8.9	0.7	1.1	47.4	60.4	40.0	0.9*	Senior
49	Darius Miller	Kentucky	SF	6-8	225	67	9.9	2.8	2.1	1.5	47.4	79.7	37.6	0.8	Senior
50	JaMychal Green	Alabama	SF	6-8	228	66	14.0	7.4	1.8	2.7	54.6	69.0	20.0	0.7/1.5*	Senior
No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
51	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	SF	6-7	210	65	13.4	4.7	1.5	1.5	42.1	74.5	34.5	1.4	Senior
52	Kim English	Missouri	SG	6-4	190	64	14.5	4.2	1.6	1.7	52.1	72.5	45.9	1.3	Senior
53	Ognjen Kuzmic	Bosnia	C	7-1	231	61	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	Int'l
54	Kevin Murphy	Tennessee Tech	SG	6-6	195	60	20.6	5.2	2.0	3.3	44.4	72.1	41.6	0.8	Senior
55	Khris Middleton	Texas A&M	SF	6-7	215	60	13.2	5.0	2.3	2.2	41.5	75.0	26.0	1.0	Senior
56	Miles Plumlee	Duke	PF	6-10	245	60	6.6	7.1	0.5	1.2	61.0	63.2	0.0	0.9*	Senior
57	Ricardo Ratliffe	Missouri	PF	6-7	244	58	13.9	7.5	0.6	1.6	69.3	69.1	0.0	1.0*	Frosh
58	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	PG	6-1	190	58	14.6	2.3	2.1	1.6	38.2	85.5	34.5	0.5	Senior
59	Robert Sacre	Gonzaga	C	7-0	247	58	11.6	6.3	0.7	1.8	51.1	76.1	0.0	1.4*	Senior
60	Rakim Sanders	Fairfield	SG	6-4	228	56	16.6	8.2	2.5	3.3	50.0	63.5	31.2	1.4	Senior
No.	Name	College	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Rating	PPG	RPG	APG	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%	SPG/BPG*	Entry
61	Xavier Gibson	Florida State	PF	6-10	265	55	6.8	4.3	0.4	2.0	47.7	67.6	26.3	1.3*	Senior
62	Marcus Denmon	Missouri	SG	6-3	185	54	17.7	5.0	2.1	1.2	46.0	89.6	40.7	1.5	Junior
63	Mike Scott	Virginia	PF	6-8	240	54	18.0	8.3	1.2	2.1	56.3	80.8	30.0	0.7	Senior
64	Henry Sims	Georgetown	PF	6-10	250	54	11.6	6.0	3.5	2.8	46.2	70.8	0.0	1.4*	Senior
65	Tyshawn Taylor	Kansas	PG	6-3	185	54	16.6	2.3	4.8	3.5	47.7	68.8	38.2	1.3	Senior
66	Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	PG	6-1	195	53	14.8	3.8	4.1	1.6	40.2	78.5	36.9	1.0	Senior
67	Eric Griffin	Campbell	SF	6-8	190	50	15.7	8.6	1.5	2.7	61.0	56.8	36.7	0.9/2.4*	Senior
68	Kyle O'Quinn	Norfolk State	C	6-10	240	50	15.9	10.3	1.4	2.6	57.3	69.6	18.8	0.7/2.7*	Senior
69	Renardo Sidney	Mississippi State	C	6-10	285	49	9.7	5.2	0.6	1.4	49.8	59.7	40.5	0.8/0.7*	Junior
70	Chace Stanback	UNLV	SF	6-7	208	49	12.5	4.4	1.3	1.1	45.5	82.0	45.5	1.4	Senior

Prospectus

Most Potential: Anthony Davis, Kentucky

The Sure Thing: Anthony Davis, Kentucky

Biggest Reach: Fab Melo, Syracuse

Overrated: Austin Rivers, Duke

Underrated: Jae Crowder, Marquette

Overall Draft Quality (1-10 scale): 8

Overall Draft Depth (1-10 scale): 7.5